Epidemic prevention and the economy, another tram dilemma

Epidemic prevention and the economy, another tram dilemma

In the meantime, epidemic prevention has entered a tense phase. Fortunately, Wuhan is like a safe island. After throwing it here and there for a while, it faded away. The areas with severe epidemics during this period are mainly Shanghai in the Yangtze River Delta and Shenzhen in the Pearl River Delta. Especially Shanghai. It was also previously called the Model of Precise Epidemic Prevention. There have been many stories, such as Disneyland, where some tourists were found to be positive. Disney did not close the park, but efficiently cleaned the park after depleting the nucleic acid for each visitor. In addition, high-risk areas designated by Shanghai are pointed towards a certain coffee shop. Compared to the closure of Xi'an city due to epidemic control, abortion of pregnant women, sick elderly people unable to leave the community, and death from treatment, epidemic prevention work in Shanghai has hardly any effect on normal economic activity. and the lives of the residents. But this period of epidemic has also broken the myth of Shanghai, China's most developed city. The high transmittance and mild characteristics of the Omicron variant make identification more difficult. The question of precise prevention and control does not arise. So if we want to control the epidemic, we can only adopt Xi'an-style shutdown. However, if a city with a highly developed economy like Shanghai shuts down, it is difficult to draw conclusions about the economic damage caused by the pandemic and the health damage caused by the pandemic.

The same problem appeared in Shenzhen in the Pearl River Delta. Because the epidemic is out of control in Hong Kong alone, the epidemic in Shenzhen is also very serious. I didn't understand it carefully, but it seems that Shenzhen has been closed for a week to focus on epidemic prevention. Compared to the previous 14-day quarantine, this time Shenzhen only lasted for a week before announcing the lifting of the lockdown. I saw a more impressive video of a man crying to epidemic prevention workers saying he was a earner during the shutdown in Shenzhen. You can't stay out of work for so long. Compared to some of the larger cities in the north, which have a large number of financial aid workers, special economic zones such as Shenzhen have been dominated by private enterprises since the beginning, and there are hardly any state-owned enterprises. If the city mentions suspension, it also means that the production of money has stopped. However, the lifestyle of modern people and the price pressure in Shenzhen make local residents not used to long-term storage. The effect of the city shutdown is quite large due to the prevention of the epidemic.

Current. The dilemma is much like the famous trolley problem. A tram with broken brakes. Running fast on the road. If the driver leaves it alone, it will hit a large group of people in front of him. If the driver turns the steering wheel at this time, the tram will only hit one or two people on the side of the road. So how should one choose a driver? In fact, no matter what you choose, it's hard to get right for the driver. Some might say that the minority should be sacrificed for the benefit of the majority, and the driver should turn that steering wheel. But the value of a person cannot be measured with a ruler or a steel scale. Not to mention whether the driver is suspected of intentional murder, there is probably a great scientist or scholar amongst one or two people on the side of the road. If these outstanding minds were lost, human civilization would be stagnant for a long time. Same. It is impossible to choose between pandemic containment and economic shutdown. So, given the mild symptoms and low mortality rate of the Omicron variant. It would be better to go with the flow.

Coincidentally, I saw a news broadcast on TV a few days back. It was an official talking about epidemic prevention and control. Although this is not explicitly stated, it can be seen that this is a response to the growing doubts about the epidemic prevention work and the negative impact of the epidemic prevention work. What he means in a nutshell, perhaps, is that the current dynamic clearing is still to be emphasized. Not insisting is the equivalent of giving up all previous efforts. Then they will adopt scientific prevention and control measures. Minimize the impact on the economy. The last thing is to adhere to epidemic prevention, but also to protect people's health. But I don't think their reasons are entirely valid. China's epidemic prevention work is really very good compared to other parts of the world. Dynamic clearing has been done in the last two years. Of course this also came at a great cost. But these costs have already been paid for, which are the so-called sunk costs. That is, it is a truth that cannot be changed. A decision to look forward should be made regardless of these immutable facts. The second is the so-called scientific prevention and control. In my opinion it is. Non-stop round after round of nucleic acid screening. First, nucleic acid testing is not 100% accurate, and false positives and false negatives are always present. another. The resources consumed by such mass screening are also astronomical.

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